If we carefully think about all the decisions conclusions judgment we made in the past five days. How many of them are an evidence-based, well-developed statement? I bet most of them are false assumptions that you mind automatically telling you you are correct, but you are not. Unfortunately, you are not the one. This aberration does appear in multiple other industries and is so deeply embedded in our culture.
How can we trust their service? How can we take their professional words?
Well, before we know how we need to know what is it. Daniel Kahneman from the New York time calls it Cognitive Fallacy, thinking of mistaken belief. Coming from his own experience, he was working at the psychology branch under the Israeli Army service. His job was to determine subject potential in a short period of observation. At the time, they fell no need to question their predictions. They have the confidence that the soldiers that they chose can make an influence in the future. If they did not go as expected, they could say, “of course, anything could happen in the future.” However, as more and more results come back negatively, he discovered the disturbing truth that their prediction is a little better than blind guesses. Most importantly, he knew all the along, but he continues to act and believe that each forecast is valid. In his word, he calls it “the illusion of validity.” He indicates that when people are facing a hard decision, they prefer the easy way out without realizing it. We cant make such monumental decisions like does an individual has the potential to be a leader based on a short period of oversedation. So they chose to believe what they see is all there is. Moreover, the coherence of the story gives people more confidence and make them feel its right even it’s not.
Later on in his life, he got the privilege to work with an investment company. Through a long period time of studying, he insists that the more active the traders that mean, the more trade processed in stock, the less revenue is going to bring. He discovers that this industry is all about luck than professional skills. On the other hand, stock pickers insist on believing that “they were competent professionals performing a task that was difficult but not impossible, and their superiors.” How do we identify what professional appear to have the illusion of skill? He suggests that when making a prediction, is it has to be large evidence-based?” “Do profesions have the opportunity to know the background? “It’s important to know that when professionals exercise their judgment with evidence confidence or evidence-based.